Devine intervention, one eulogy at a time.
This is a forecast of the succession of the presidents of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. The Church's leadership, outside the Godhead, consists of 15 apostles, with the most senior serving as president. The current president is Russell M. Nelson. At his passing, the most senior apostle would assume the presidency. Succession is based on seniority, not age, but advancing in seniority is tied to death, making age a useful indicator of potential presidents.
Actuaries, risk management specialists, often work in insurance, using life tables to calculate mortality probabilities. This chart shows the apostles' probabilities of surviving to become president from an actuarial standpoint, using a modified life table from the Society of Actuaries and a Monte Carlo simulation.
Age is a driver of higher probabilities. For example, Elder Bednar was relatively young when he was called in his early fifties, while most are called in their sixties. He is also over a decade younger than his immediate predecessor. These age-related factors bolster his probability of one day becoming the president of the Church. Who's next?
The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/
Society of Actuaries. (2014). RP-2014 Mortality Tables. Society of Actuaries. https://www.soa.org/resources/experience-studies/2014/research-2014-rp/
Society of Actuaries. (2021). MP-2021 Mortality Improvement Scale. Society of Actuaries. https://www.soa.org/resources/experience-studies/2021/mortality-improvement-scale-mp-2021/
This website reflects the author's personal exploration of ideas and methods. The views expressed are solely their own and may not represent the policies or practices of any affiliated organizations, employers, or clients. Different perspectives, goals, or constraints within teams or organizations can lead to varying appropriate methods. The information provided is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal, actuarial, or professional advice.
