And it feels like something went wrong—that someone should be held accountable.
The Works section has been updated with my most recent publication: Risk, Rates, and Reality.
I argue that stakeholders sometimes misinterpret losses as evidence for actuarially unsound rates, yet capitation rates are set prospectively based on what the actuary knew at the time. Even after following a legitimate forecasting process, insurance losses can happen because of the forecasts' probabilistic nature, not due to forecasting errors.
The editor didn't include my standard disclaimers, so I'll say it here for both this post and the article:
This website reflects the author's personal exploration of ideas and methods. The views expressed are solely their own and may not represent the policies or practices of any affiliated organizations, employers, or clients. Different perspectives, goals, or constraints within teams or organizations can lead to varying appropriate methods. The information provided is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal, actuarial, or professional advice.
